Курс евро в конце 2020 года прогноз: Курс евро будет падать или расти в ближайшее время в 2020 году — Рамблер/финансы

Прогноз курса евро на 2020 год, сколько будет стоить евро (EUR) к рублю (RUB)

Прогноз курса евро на начало и конец 2020 года

Конвертировать 

EUR 

На начало года 

72.08 ₽

Средний курс 

71.7 ₽ 

На конец года

69.44 ₽

На начало 2020 года курс евро по ЦБ РФ 72.08.
Стоимость евро в сравнении с курсом на декабрь 2019, упала на двух рублях семидесяти четырёх копейках ₽.
Прогнозируемый средний курс евро на 2020 год составит 71.7 ₽

График прогноза курса евро

На графике представлена динамика курса евро за день, неделю, месяц, в течение 2020 года в удобной графической форме.
Статистика в графике отображает рост и падение курса евро за различные промежутки времени, что позволяет делать вероятные прогнозы курсов одной валюты по отношению к другой.

Прогноз курса евро на 2020 год

МесяцНа начало месяцаНа конец месяцаСреднийМинимальныйМаксимальный
Январь72.08 ₽71.22 ₽71.13 ₽70.42 ₽72.27 ₽
Февраль72.1 ₽71.21 ₽71.12 ₽70.49 ₽71.71 ₽
Март72.09 ₽71.2 ₽70.62 ₽70.38 ₽71.76 ₽
Апрель71.87 ₽70.97 ₽70.58 ₽70.09 ₽71.06 ₽
Май71.86 ₽70.48 ₽70.69 ₽70.15 ₽71.04 ₽
Июнь71.78 ₽70.68 ₽70.34 ₽69.92 ₽71.06 ₽
Июль71.7 ₽70.23 ₽69.97 ₽69.96 ₽70.82 ₽
Август71.58 ₽70.43 ₽69.99 ₽69.89 ₽70.17 ₽
Сентябрь71.59 ₽70.21 ₽69.68 ₽69.83 ₽70.2 ₽
Октябрь71.51 ₽70.09 ₽69.87 ₽69.51 ₽70.22 ₽
Ноябрь71.34 ₽69.95 ₽69.55 ₽69.59 ₽70.06 ₽
Декабрь71.34 ₽69.77 ₽69.44 ₽69.34 ₽69.8 ₽

По мнению финансовых экспертов и аналитиков в течение предстоящего года евро ожидает падение

Предполагаемые изменения курса обмена EUR за RUB по месяцам:

  • Январь 2020: Курс продажи составит 71.22 ₽
  • Февраль 2020: Курс продажи составит 71.21 ₽
  • Март 2020: Курс продажи составит 71.2 ₽
  • Апрель 2020: Курс продажи составит 70.97 ₽
  • Май 2020: Курс продажи составит 70.48 ₽
  • Июнь 2020: Курс продажи составит 70.68 ₽
  • Июль 2020: Курс продажи составит 70.23 ₽
  • Август 2020: Курс продажи составит 70.43 ₽
  • Сентябрь 2020: Курс продажи составит 70.21 ₽
  • Октябрь 2020: Курс продажи составит 70.09 ₽
  • Ноябрь 2020: Курс продажи составит 69.95 ₽
  • Декабрь 2020: Курс продажи составит 69.77 ₽
Прогноз курса евро на 2020 год: аналитика и мнения экспертов

Опубликовано: 24 ноября 2019

Шрифт A A

Нет времени читать?

Последние недели курс доллара и евро показывал относительную стабильность, но сейчас спрос на основные валюты вырос. Это произошло из опасений относительно сделки между Китаем и США и резкого падения цен на нефть. Эксперты рассказали, каким будет прогноз курса евро на 2020 год.

От чего зависит курс евро

Доллар и евро являются самыми торгуемыми валютами на международном рынке, основными резервными валютами, и активы множества стран в значительной мере состоят из них. Поэтому для доллара и евро характерна относительная стабильность.

На курс европейской валюты по отношению к доллару США главным образом влияет политика национальных банков и экономические показатели США и стран ЕС. На котировки EUR/USD ориентируется большое количество государств в своей монетарной политике.

На курс влияют события в экономике США и европейских стран, которые изменяют уровень спроса и предложения в валютной паре. Негативные новости из Соединенных Штатов всегда увеличивают спрос на евро, а рост доллара снижает стоимость европейской валюты.

Например, в августе текущего года евро обновил минимум с мая 2017 г. По отношению к доллару котировки снизились на 0,3%, до $1,103 (в рублях евро стоил ₽ 70,44). Это произошло на фоне решения ФРС США снизить ставку, несмотря на показатели инфляции и безработицы ниже ожидаемых.

Экономисты выделяют 5 наиболее значимых факторов, которые существенно влияют на формирование курса:

  1. Уровень инфляции и потребительские цены. Для анализа используется индекс потребительских цен Германии, Франции и ЕС в целом. На цифры выше прогнозируемых рынок отвечает ростом евро.
  2. Экономические настроения и уверенность инвесторов. Если индекс экономических отношений Германии выше нуля, инвесторы оптимистичны, если ниже — преобладают пессимистические настроения. На цифры ниже ожидаемого евро реагирует падением.
  3. Рост экономики ЕС. Резкие скачки курса обычно вызывают квартальные отчеты по европейскому ВВП.
  4. Денежная политика. После выхода информации по ставкам ЦБ ЕС проводится пресс-конференция главы ЦБЕ. Если в речи руководителя беспокойство отсутствует, то курс будет стабильным.
  5. Торговый баланс. Для анализа используются отчеты по торговому балансу Франции, Германии и ЕС. Данные выше прогноза вызывают укрепление EUR.

Существенное влияние могут оказать аналитические прогнозы крупных банков  и политические события.

Какой прогноз курса евро на 2020 год дают эксперты

В конце октября 2019 г. Борис Джонсон, премьер-министр Великобритании, согласился на отсрочку выхода из ЕС до конца января 2020 г. Политическое событие оказало влияние не только на курс фунта, но и на валютную пару EUR/USD.

Аналитики, опрошенные международным агентством новостей Reuters, считают, что в ближайшие 3 месяца до Brexit котировки сильно не упадут. В декабре евро может подешеветь до $1,09, но уже к концу января 2020 г. курс европейской валюты вырастет до $1,1. Эксперты “Нордеа Банка” также прогнозируют, что в январе курс евро к доллару приблизится к $1,13.

Поставщик финансовой информации для участников фондовых рынков Bloomberg пишет: в банке Morgan Stanley считают, что в 2020 г. американские облигации и акции будут показывать отстающую динамику, а экономический рост за пределами США ускорится. Банк ждет позитивных изменений в Азии и Европе.

Стратег Morgan Stanley Ханс Редекер считает, что в начале 2020 г. стоит ожидать падения интереса к доллару, на фоне чего стоимость евро поднимется. Правда укрепление европейской валюты будет зависеть от многих факторов. Если крупнейшие экономики достигнут договоренностей в торговой войне, доллар окажется в выигрыше.

Сейчас доллар растёт в результате появления информации от китайского государственного агентства “Синьхуа” о проведении сторонами конструктивных переговоров, на фоне чего евро слабеет. Но как дальше будет развиваться ситуация между Китаем и США, пока неизвестно.

Ключевым фактором, который повлияет на котировки EUR в 2020 г. эксперт считает экономический рост ЕС. Все внимание аналитиков и инвесторов будет привлечено к статистике из Германии и пресс-конференции ЦБ ЕС. Новым председателем структуры стала Кристин Лагард, рынок пока не знает, как на это реагировать, поскольку неизвестно, какой курс она собирается проводить.

Большинство экспертов считают, что в 2020 г. ситуация в экономике Штатов будет ухудшаться. В результате ожидается более слабый доллар и низкие процентные ставки в США. Для евро это означает укрепление. Для такой тенденции может потребоваться больше времени, чем ожидалось ранее: процесс станет наиболее выраженным во второй половине следующего года.

Эксперты “ЮниКредит Банка” называют конкретные цифры. Аналитики считают, что к концу 2019 г. евро будет стоить $1,14, а к ноябрю-декабрю 2020 г. поднимется до $1,18. В течение первого полугодия 2020 г. котировки будут колебаться в пределах $1,14-1,16.

Аналитики французского финансового конгломерата Societe Generale считают, что в 2020 г. курс евро составит $1,1 по отношению к доллару. В первом полугодии европейская валюта укрепится до $1,14, к началу октября котировки изменятся до $1,17, к концу 2020 г. — до $1,2.

Какой прогноз в России

Представители Сбербанка, ВТБ и Газпрома дают приблизительно одинаковые прогнозы по поводу курса евро в России. Аналитики объединения ВТБ предполагают, что в январе 2020 г. EUR будет стоить около ₽78, к апрелю котировки вырастут до ₽85-86, но ближе к осени россияне увидят привычные ₽68-70.

В Газпроме ожидают курс ₽77-85 за евро в начале 2020 г., во втором полугодии стоимость ориентировочно составит ₽64. Консультанты Сбербанка озвучивают похожие прогнозы. Аналитики предупреждают, что в первые несколько месяцев следующего года будет продолжаться укрепление евро со снижением в дальнейшем до ₽69 за €1.

По ожиданиям аналитиков “Бинбанка”, в январе-феврале 2020 г. возможен рост до ₽87 за €1. Курс будет меняться, но к концу года ситуация стабилизируется. Аналитики “УралСиба” тоже считают, что пик в валютной паре EUR/RUB произойдет до июня 2020 г. Так, в январе-мае евро достигнет ₽88, в июне-декабре ожидается понижение курса до ₽69.

В “Ренессанс Капитал” в своих прогнозах ориентируются на экономические показатели. Аналитики считают, что если процесс рецессии в США усилится, цены на нефть упадут до минимума в $40 (₽2 552) за баррель. Это явление вызовет кризис российской валюты, так что евро при относительно стабильном курсе EUR/USD будет стоить ₽82,5. Прогноз негативный, но дает понять, к чему нужно готовиться при снижении цен на сырье.

Независимое аналитическое бюро Prognozex усреднило ожидания более чем 15 финансовых организаций и прогнозы собственных аналитиков. Результаты следующие:

  • до мая 2020 г. евро вырастет до ₽81,18 как минимум, максимум прогнозируется в конце марта-начале апреля — ₽89,6;
  • в июне-октябре котировки будут варьироваться в пределах ₽77,46-78,49, период относительно стабильный;
  • с конца октября-начала ноября рубль начнет укрепляться по отношению к евро: на ноябрь ожидается курс ₽74 за €1, к концу декабря европейская валюта снизится до ₽67,48.

Прогнозы не гарантируют, что ситуация будет развиваться именно в таком ключе, а носят только предположительный характер. В течение года все расчеты корректируются по новостям об экономических событиях и политической обстановке.

сколько будут стоить доллар и евро к следующей зиме

– Основным фактором для белорусского рубля в 2019 году стало заметное укрепление российского рубля.

За год доллар к российскому рублю подешевел на 10,9%, евро снизился на 13%. Разница в этих изменениях доллара и евро к российскому рублю связана с тем, что сам евро подешевел к доллару за год на 2,4% — с 1,1450 до 1,1180.

В результате к белорусскому рублю за год доллар подешевел с 2,1598 до 2,1036, или на 2,6%.

Евро за год подешевел с 2,4734 до 2,3524 белорусского рубля, или на 4,9%.

Российский рубль, естественно, подорожал – с 3,1128 до 3,4043 белорусского рубля за 100 российских, или на 9,4%.

Рост рубля в корзине валют перевесил снижение доллара и евро. Корзина выросла к белорусскому рублю на 2,7%.

Есть несколько интересных моментов, на которые стоит обратить внимание.

Во-первых, доллар и евро стоят к концу года дешевле, чем в его начале. Вообще это происходит, пожалуй, впервые в истории Беларуси.

Второй интересный момент – несмотря на то, что впервые евро и доллар за год подешевели, белорусский рубль все равно снизился к корзине.

В 2018 году картина была противоположной. Когда доллар и евро подорожали, российский рубль к белорусскому за год подешевел, стоимость валютной корзины снизилась к белорусскому рублю на 1,1%.

То есть вот такой парадокс. Вроде бы впервые доллар и евро дешевеют по году. Но это не лучший год для рубля. Лучший год для рубля был 2018-й.

Кстати говоря, и 2018-й, и 2019 год, хоть с разным знаком, но по сути одинаково демонстрируют, насколько высокое значение для белорусского валютного рынка играет курс российского рубля. Когда в 2018 году российский рубль к иностранным валютам падал, у нас: российский рубль – вниз, доллар и евро – вверх. Когда в 2019 году российский рубль поменял динамику и стал к иностранным валютам укрепляться, в результате у нас: российский рубль – вверх, доллар и евро – вниз.

Прогноз на 2020 год

Основной прогноз будет касаться валютной корзины. Ее стоимость будет расти пропорционально инфляции. А инфляция, скорее всего, будет расти на прогнозных уровнях, то есть на 5% за 2020 год. На столько же может вырасти и валютная корзина

И если предположить, что курс иностранных валют на внешних рынках, то есть евро к доллару, доллара к российскому рублю, сильно не изменятся, в этом случае рост корзины на 5% будет означать рост каждой валюты на 5%.

В итоге доллар может вырасти к концу года до 2,21 белорусского рубля, евро – до 2,47 белорусского рубля, а российский рубль может подорожать до 3,57 белорусского рубля за 100 российских.

Но надо иметь в виду, что неизбежные колебания на внешних валютных рынках, конечно же, внесут свои коррективы в этот прогноз. И это очень много факторов — начиная от курса российского рубля, на который действуют цены на нефть и санкции в отношении РФ, и заканчивая соотношением евро и доллара, на которые действует политика ФРС, ЕЦБ, инфляция, безработица и в США, и в еврозоне. Так что спрогнозировать в точности ситуацию на валютном рынке достаточно сложно.

Прогноз курса евро на 2021 год, сколько будет стоить евро (EUR) к рублю (RUB)

Прогноз курса евро на начало и конец 2021 года

Конвертировать 

EUR 

На начало года 

71.23 ₽

Средний курс 

70.67 ₽ 

На конец года

67.61 ₽

На начало 2021 года курс евро по ЦБ РФ 71.24.
Стоимость евро в сравнении с курсом на декабрь 2020, упала на одном рубле восьми копейках ₽.
Прогнозируемый средний курс евро на 2021 год составит 70.67 ₽

График прогноза курса евро

На графике представлена динамика курса евро за день, неделю, месяц, в течение 2021 года в удобной графической форме.
Статистика в графике отображает рост и падение курса евро за различные промежутки времени, что позволяет делать вероятные прогнозы курсов одной валюты по отношению к другой.

Прогноз курса евро на 2021 год

МесяцНа начало месяцаНа конец месяцаСреднийМинимальныйМаксимальный
Январь71.24 ₽69.37 ₽69.26 ₽69.24 ₽69.16 ₽
Февраль71.11 ₽69.17 ₽69.17 ₽69.23 ₽68.84 ₽
Март71.07 ₽69.25 ₽69.13 ₽69.18 ₽68.81 ₽
Апрель71.05 ₽68.92 ₽68.63 ₽68.88 ₽68.95 ₽
Май70.83 ₽69.05 ₽68.54 ₽68.86 ₽68.71 ₽
Июнь70.8 ₽68.55 ₽68.54 ₽68.86 ₽68.31 ₽
Июль70.67 ₽68.52 ₽68.21 ₽68.82 ₽67.96 ₽
Август70.62 ₽68.36 ₽68.31 ₽68.45 ₽68 ₽
Сентябрь70.69 ₽68.39 ₽67.95 ₽68.55 ₽67.66 ₽
Октябрь70.45 ₽68.16 ₽67.82 ₽68.48 ₽67.19 ₽
Ноябрь70.54 ₽67.83 ₽67.67 ₽68.3 ₽66.96 ₽
Декабрь70.46 ₽67.67 ₽67.61 ₽68.29 ₽66.95 ₽

По мнению финансовых экспертов и аналитиков в течение предстоящего года евро ожидает падение

Предполагаемые изменения курса обмена EUR за RUB по месяцам:

  • Январь 2021: Курс продажи составит 69.37 ₽
  • Февраль 2021: Курс продажи составит 69.17 ₽
  • Март 2021: Курс продажи составит 69.25 ₽
  • Апрель 2021: Курс продажи составит 68.92 ₽
  • Май 2021: Курс продажи составит 69.05 ₽
  • Июнь 2021: Курс продажи составит 68.55 ₽
  • Июль 2021: Курс продажи составит 68.52 ₽
  • Август 2021: Курс продажи составит 68.36 ₽
  • Сентябрь 2021: Курс продажи составит 68.39 ₽
  • Октябрь 2021: Курс продажи составит 68.16 ₽
  • Ноябрь 2021: Курс продажи составит 67.83 ₽
  • Декабрь 2021: Курс продажи составит 67.67 ₽

90000 EURUSD forecast for 13.07.2020 90001 July 13, 2020 July 13, 2020 EUR / USD forecast: three news for euro 90002 Dmitri Demidenko 90003 90004 Fundamental Euro forecast for today 90005 90006 EUR / USD traders will focus on the US stock indices and the meetings of the ECB and the EU 90007 90008 Nothing lasts forever. The Euro strengthens, being supported by the effective emergency measures taken by the ECB and the EU governments to save the euro-area economy from the recession caused by the pandemic.The end of the lockdown and the recovery of the euro-area GDP is going faster than it was expected. However, everything could turn opposite if the number of coronavirus cases soars in Europe, and the Frugal Four, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands block the EU fiscal stimulus. However, this is a pessimistic scenario. I prefer a more optimistic scenario. 90009 90008 The start of the US earnings season, the ECB meeting and the EU summit are the highlights of the week through July 17, which should have a great impact on the EUR / USD trend.The rally of the US stock indexes weighs on the greenback. However, if the gloomy forecasts of the Wall Street experts come true, the euro will lose its important growth driver. According to FactSet, the earnings of the companies, whose shares are included in the S & P 500 will drop by 45% Y-o-Y in the second quarter. The Dow Jones Market Data notes that the difference between the S & P 500 forecasts is 50 cents on paper, compared with 40 cents in the first quarter. The average difference over the past 13 years ranged from 9 cents to 16 cents.The wide gap means that the US stock market can face a wild ride. 90009 90008 In my opinion, the worse are the forecasts, the higher is the chance that the actual data will show a better performance. It could be good news for the euro. The S & P 500 is rising not only because of great stimuli but also because of the talks that the creation of the coronavirus vaccine and a decline in the fatality rate should compensate for the negative news on the record number of the coronavirus cases. 90009 90006 Dynamics of changes in new COVID-19 cases and the infection fatality rate in the USA 90007 90008 90009 90008 90019 Source: Trading Economics 90020 90009 90008 While the US considers the risks of the second lockdown, the euro-area economy is recovering fast .The euro-area economic recovery is two-speed. Like in the cases with trade wars in 2018-2019, strong domestic demand compensates for the drop in exports. Investors expect a V-shaped rebound of the European GDP, which narrows the yield spreads between government bonds of the peripheral countries and Germany. They are the primary indicator of financial stress in the euro area. 90009 90006 Dynamics of Italy-Germany bond yield spread 90007 90008 90009 90008 90019 Source: Bloomberg 90020 90009 90008 However, if the European Central bank shares the opinion of Klaas Knot, everything can change very quickly.Dutch central bank governor suggests the ECB asset purchases could fall short of the total QE program of € 1.35 trillion if the bloc’s economy recovers faster than expected from the Covid-19 crisis. If the ECB monetary policy is tightened too early, both the euro-area stock market and the euro will be pressed down. Let us hope this does not happen. 90009 90008 It would be a positive driver if the French-German emergency plan is adopted at the EU summit. Angela Merkel noted that the Eurozone could not afford to waste time, which suggests the plan is likely to be approved.If so, the EUR / USD could go up from the trading range of 1.11-1.14 and continue rising. 90009 90036 90008 P.S. Did you like my article? Share it in social networks: it will be the best «thank you» 🙂 90009 90008 Ask me questions and comment below. I’ll be glad to answer your questions and give necessary explanations. 90009 90008 90042 Useful links: 90043 90009 90045 90046 I recommend trying to trade with a reliable broker here. The system allows you to trade by yourself or copy successful traders from all across the globe.90047 90046 Use my promo-code BLOG for getting deposit bonus 50% on LiteForex platform. Just enter this code in the appropriate field while depositing your trading account. 90047 90046 Telegram channel with high-quality analytics, Forex reviews, training articles, and other useful things for traders https://t.me/liteforex 90047 90052 90008 90009 90004 Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode 90005 90008 The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex.The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39 / EC. 90009 90008 Rate this article: 90009 {{value}} ({{count}} {{title}})
.90000 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 13 — 17, 2020 року — Analytics & Forecasts — 11 July 2020 90001
90002 90003 First, a review of last week’s events: 90004 90003 90004 90007 90002 90009 — EUR / USD. 90010 The dollar is slowly weakening, the pair moved above Pivot Point 1.1240 last week, but is still within the five-week channel 1.1170-1.1350. As expected by 25% of experts, the bulls made an attempt to reach the level of 1.1400, but their attack choked quickly, and, turning at the height of 1.1370, the pair went down again, ending the five-day period in the 1.1300 zone. 90007 90002 The pressure on the American currency is explained by the improvement in the economic situation in a number of countries, including the EU. Enterprises have started working there, demand is recovering, buyers are returning to stores, unlike the United States, where even Fed officials doubt the ability of the economy to recover quickly. Thus, FOMC members Rosengren and Barkin noted that, having fulfilled the old orders, the industry has so far not received new ones.And this could lead to further printing of dollars and an increase in the quantitative easing (QE) program. 90007 90002 All this comes amid a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. On Wednesday, July 08, a new peak of infections was reached in the United States, 60 thousand people. The number of deaths doubled compared with average levels, reaching 1000 per day, which is a significant reason for the growth of pessimism among market participants. 90007 90002 The euro, on the contrary, feels better, thanks to the improvement of the epidemiological situation and the competent monetary and fiscal policy of the EU.Support for Europe is also provided by the rapidly strengthening yuan and, paradoxically, the US president Donald Trump. More precisely, his falling ratings, because of which he is now not up to the trade wars with China. And if Democrat Joe Biden becomes the new president, then Washington’s policy towards Beijing may change dramatically, which will lead to further growth of the Chinese and, as a consequence, European economies; 90007 90002 90009 — GBP / USD. 90010 In the last issue of the forecast, we wondered whether the growth of the pound was considered a temporary correction or a serious turnaround in the trend.The vast majority of indicators, along with graphical analysis, predicted a further rise for the pair. A total of 50% of experts also spoke in favor of its northward movement, with 30% pointing to a resistance of 1.2680 as a limiter. And they were right: the week’s high was recorded at 1.2670, followed by a slight bounce down and a finish at 1.2625. 90007 90002 The steady growth of the pound was facilitated by the widespread weakening of the dollar (the reasons are indicated above), as well as moderate optimism caused by the negotiations on the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU; 90007 90002 — 90009 USD / JPY 90010.Tokyo, like a number of US states, has also recorded a record rise in coronavirus cases. However, so far this is not very worrying for investors, especially since the data on actual orders for machine tools and equipment that became known this week turned out to be higher than forecast, which indicates some recovery in the Japanese economy. 90007 90002 Against the backdrop of a general weakening of the dollar, the yen was able to strengthen its position a bit: starting the week from 107.50, the pair sank to the horizon of 106.65 by Friday evening. The final chord of the week was set at 106.90; 90007 90002 90009 — cryptocurrencies. 90010 If a few months ago, the main topic of discussion was the question of whether Bitcoin can be considered a safe haven asset, now the topic of correlation of the main cryptocurrency with the stock market is constantly being discussed. For example, the Skew portal calculated that the correlation between bitcoin and the S & P500 index has now reached a historical high and currently its coefficient is approximately 66%.According to portal analysts, this means that Bitcoin has failed to become the antithesis of traditional finance and is moving in the same harness with them. Some even called bitcoin a «stock market startup.» 90007 90002 There is a certain logic to this, since the main source of financing for both markets, both the stock and crypto, have been central banks in recent months, and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve, which pours the economy with a huge amount of cheap money. 90007 90002 But if you look at the graphs, a completely different picture emerges.Since the May halving of the BTC, the S & P500 index has risen by about 9%, the Nasdaq 100 — by 19%, but bitcoin, having failed to gain a foothold above $ 10,000, has gone down and now is consolidated in the $ 9,000-9,500 zone. So where’s the correlation? 90007 90002 Unlike the stock market, bitcoin does not look like the most attractive asset at the moment, despite the entreaties of all kinds of crypto gurus. The main cryptocurrency continues to consume a huge amount of energy, and at its current price, it loses its supporters even among miners, whose revenue, according to Coindesk estimates, fell by 26% in June.90007 90002 The cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown slightly over the past week, reaching $ 269 billion, and has only returned to where it was already on June 22 and 24. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index of Bitcoin has not changed at all for the week: its arrow is still at 41. 90007 90002 Such sluggishness of the main cryptocurrency plays into the hands of altcoins, especially since it has become much easier to buy them than a year or two ago. And if on May 15 the share of Bitcoin in the crypto market was 69.81%, now it has dropped to 62.79%. That is, in less than two months, the drop was 7.02% in absolute terms and 10% in relative terms. 90007 90002 Unlike BTC, many altcoins show impressive growth in July, and this can not help but attract investor attention. So, for example, the growth of Ethereum (ETH / USD) at the high of July 07 was about 10%, Ripple (XRP / USD) — 20%, Cardano — 34%. The record holders were Dogecoin, which added 79% after the viral video in TikTok and VeChain with 101%. 90007 90046 90009 *** 90010 90009 90010 90007 90002 90009 As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: 90010 90009 90010 90007 90002 90009 — EUR / USD.90010 If earlier the main reference point for investors was US stock indices, now everything has changed. At the beginning of July, the ball is ruled not at all by the American S & P500, but by the Chinese Shanghai Composite. And if before the US economy grew much faster than the European economy, fueled by trade wars with China, things have now turned 180 degrees. Now the Fed no longer has the ability to raise the interest rate, making the dollar more attractive compared to rival currencies.A black cloud over the US economyis the prospect of massive non-repayment of loans, which are the main driver of its growth. 90007 90002 The dollar index has already returned to the area of ​​June lows, losing 1.4% since early July, and this trend threatens to become long-term. According to some experts, the American currency may lose up to 20% of its value within a few years, losing most of what has been won since 2014. 90007 90002 The average forecast of the 11 largest US banks indicates the EUR / USD pair at 1.1500 by the end of 2020. The only one to favor the strengthening of the dollar and lower the pair towards 1.0500 was investment bank Merrill Lynch. The reason for this forecast was the expectation of an expansion of the ECB’s quantitative easing program by € 400-600 billion. 90007 90002 If we talk about the forecast for the coming days, according to the Bloomberg Probability Calculator, based on the readings of the options market, the EUR / USD pair has a better chance to rise above 1.1500 than to fall below 1.1200. 80% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are also colored green. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. 90007 90002 90009 — GBP / USD. 90010 This week we expect: Monday, July 13, a statement by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, Tuesday — data on GDP, Wednesday — on the consumer market, and Thursday — on the UK labor market. Particular attention should be paid to Tuesday 14 July: according to preliminary forecasts, GDP growth in May may be 5% compared with a drop of 20.4% a month earlier. And if the forecast proves correct, it could serve to further strengthen the British currency. 90007 90002 Its growth is expected by 65% ​​of experts, supported by 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on h5, as well as 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. The main goal is the high of June 10, 1.2810, resistance is located at levels 1.2670 and 1.2740. 90007 90002 The opposite point of view is shared by 35% of analysts and the remaining oscillators, painted red on h5 and located in the overbought zone on D1.90007 90002 It should be noted that when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the number of bear supporters among experts increases to 60%. The goal is to return the pair to the 1.2250-1.2400 zone; 90007 90002 90079 90080 90007 90002 90009 — USD / JPY. 90010 Except for a single release on June 2-05, the pair has been moving in the lateral corridor 106.00-108.10 for 13 weeks, and, according to experts, is not going to leave its limits yet. At the same time, 70% of analysts vote for further strengthening of the yen and reduction of the pair to the lower border of the corridor, supported by graphical analysis on h5, and 30% are for its growth to the upper border.Among the oscillators on both h5 and D1, 80% are colored red, 95% among trend indicators. 90007 90002 In terms of important economic developments, the Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate on Wednesday, July 15, followed by a press conference of its management. However, surprises are most likely not worth waiting for, and the rate will remain negative at the level of -0.1%; 90007 90002 90009 — cryptocurrencies 90010. The gurus of this market, as usual, compete in predictions regarding the rise of Bitcoin.So, a team of researchers from the Bloomberg Agency published a report, according to which the BTC / USD pair is expected to grow to $ 12,000 in the near future. Recall that among Bloomberg analysts, Mike McGlone is an ardent supporter of the largest cryptocurrency. He said back in June that a BTC jerk was imminent, with the result by the end of the year being to overcome the psychological milestone of $ 20,000. 90007 90002 — Anthoni Trenchev, Managing Partner of Nexo Credit Platform, gave an even more optimistic forecast.In his opinion, the value of bitcoin may exceed $ 50,000 in a few months. During an interview at the Block Down conference, Anthoni Trenchev said that the Nexo platform is growing tens of percent every month, new customers are constantly registering, both retail and institutional investors. And it is the increased participation of institutionals that can be the driver of growth. I admit, this is a bold statement, but fundamental factors and a change in attitude towards cryptocurrency make it real, «he concluded.90007 90002 The fact that the attitude is changing is indisputable. According to the survey conducted by The Tokenist in 17 countries, 45% of respondents would prefer to have cryptocurrency instead of stocks, real estate and gold, and among millennials their share is 92%. 90007 90002 And now the results of another survey conducted on Twitter by popular cryptanalyst under the nickname PlanB with the aim of finding out what price BTC will be by the end of 2021. Of the nearly 27,000 surveyed, the majority (53%) were inclined to a high of $ 55,000.Nearly 30% of respondents named the $ 100,000 mark. And 17% do not exclude the option in which BTC will approach $ 300,000. 90007 90002 As for forecasts for the next week, the vast majority of analysts still consider the level of $ 9,000 as Pivot Point for the pair BTC / USD, citing the lower limit of fluctuations as $ 8,800, the upper — $ 9,700. And only 10 per cent believe the pair could drop to the $ 8,400 zone. 90007 90002 90009 NordFX Analytical Group 90010 90007 90002 90009 https: // nordfx.com / 90010 90007 90002 90109 Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds 90110 90007
.90000 EURUSD forecast for 10.07.2020 90001 July 10, 2020 July 10, 2020 EUR / USD forecast: Dollar is grasping at straws 90002 Dmitri Demidenko 90003 90004 Fundamental US dollar forecast for today 90005 90006 The growth in the number of COVID-19 cases in the USA sets back the EUR / USD uptrend 90007 90008 The EU governments used to be accused of inefficient management, but the pandemic changed everything.The success of European medical services, quick actions to provide monetary and fiscal stimulus, and Germany’s willingness to take responsibility for poorer euro-area states have encouraged the EUR / USD bulls to go ahead. The euro risk reversals are growing as the epidemiological situation in the USA, unlike that in the euro area, is deteriorating, and the local rises of the US dollar are used to sell the greenback off. According to Bloomberg’s option probability calculator, based on the options market pricing, the EUR / USD is more likely to trade above 1.15 in a week’s time than to drop below 1.12. 90009 90006 Dynamics the ratio of U.S. versus Germany COVID-19 cases and the euro risk reversals 90007 90008 90009 90008 90015 Source: Bloomberg 90016 90009 90008 The median gauge of the Wall Street 11 biggest banks also suggest the eurodollar should be at 1.15 by the end of 2020. BofA Merrill Lynch suggests the most bearish forecast, saying the EUR / USD should be down to 1.05. They say the Fed will hardly boost its balance sheet significantly, while the ECB will continue easing its monetary policy.According to 64% of Bloomberg experts, Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will boost the ECB’s QE program by € 400 € 600 billion by the end of the year. However, I believe it is not very wise to bet solely on the divergence in views from policymakers in the U.S. and EU. Markets are likely to be more influenced by the trade wars or the COVID-19 news, than the decisions on monetary policies. 90009 90008 Investors should take into account different factors and build their own trading strategies based on the strongest drivers.In 2018-2019, the determining forex pricing factor was the US-China trade war, in 2020 року, it is the coronavirus pandemic and economic lockdowns. With this regard, a better epidemiological situation in Europe suggests a quicker rebound of the euro-area economy, which should support the growing demand for European assets. The liquidity is flowing out of the US, and so, the greenback is weakening. 90009 90008 One should not be confused by the growth of Citigroup’s US Economic Surprise Index. The US positive economic data under current conditions are like fast food.It looks appealing but it is bad for your health. 90009 90008 The euro is also supported by the yuan that is growing in value now. The matter is not only in the market important for the Eurozone. When investors are willing to buy anything but for the US assets, the greenback’s rivals are growing in price. 90009 90006 Dynamics of euro and yuan 90007 90008 90009 90008 90015 Source: Bloomberg. 90016 90009 90008 The drop of the USD / CNY has resulted from both a quick recovery of the Chinese economy and the weakness of the world’s major currencies weighed on by the huge fiscal stimulus.The yuan positively responds to the growth of the approval ratings of democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, whose policy is likely to be less aggressive than that of Donald Trump. 90009 90008 Of course, one should not fully give up on the US dollar as a safe haven amid the growth in the number of coronavirus cases in the USA. However, the middle-term and long-term outlook of the greenback is bearish. Therefore, one should use the drop of the EUR / USD to the bottom of the trading range of 1.11-1.14, I suggested earlier, to add to the long positions. 90009 90038 90008 P.S. Did you like my article? Share it in social networks: it will be the best «thank you» 🙂 90009 90008 Ask me questions and comment below. I’ll be glad to answer your questions and give necessary explanations. 90009 90008 90044 Useful links: 90045 90009 90047 90048 I recommend trying to trade with a reliable broker here. The system allows you to trade by yourself or copy successful traders from all across the globe.90049 90048 Use my promo-code BLOG for getting deposit bonus 50% on LiteForex platform. Just enter this code in the appropriate field while depositing your trading account. 90049 90048 Telegram channel with high-quality analytics, Forex reviews, training articles, and other useful things for traders https://t.me/liteforex 90049 90054 90004 Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode 90005 90008 The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex.The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39 / EC. 90009 90008 Rate this article: 90009 {{value}} ({{count}} {{title}})
.90000 10 Currency Analysts On The Near-Term Euro To Dollar Exchange Rate Outlook 90001

90002 Exchange Rates UK Research team have compiled a roundup of views on the Euro to Dollar exchange rate outlook from ten leading FX analysts. 90003

90004 Analyst Views and Opinion on Euro Near to Medium-Term Outlook 90005

90002 90007 Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management 90008 90003

90002 «Since data will most likely show the divergence between the eurozone and US economies widening in the coming weeks, further losses are likely» says Lien.»The next major support level for EUR / USD is 1.05 but the decline could also ease around 1.0800, an area that contained losses in early 2016 and mid 2015. When it comes to trading, fighting trends can be futile. When the euro bottoms, the turn will be meaningful so for the time being its better to go with the trend than to fade it. The spike in coronavirus cases does not help. Euro is a high beta currency that suffers when there is risk aversion. » 90003

90002 90007 Shaun Osborne, Scotiabank 90008 90003

90002 «EURUSD short-term technicals are bearish» says Osborne.»Minor intraday resistance at 1.0850 caps EUR upside potential at the moment amid a sustained and deeply entrenched sell off. Loss of support in the upper 1.08s this week leaves the EUR more exposed to sub-1.08 weakness in the short and medium term.» 90003

90002 90007 Joe Bond, Citi 90008 90003

90002 «The negative rate environment continues to be a drag on the Euro, as investors ‘borrow’ as a funding currency» says Bond. «The current levels look attractive to buy, however there is the question of holding Euro cash due to the negative yield.The upside potential for the Euro most likely comes from fiscal easing, given the monetary policy for the continent provides diminished returns of stimulus (negative interest rates, and expansive quantitative easing (QE). «90003

90002 90007 Avery Shenfeld, CIBC 90008 90003

90002 «Global growth fears stemming from the coronavirus are certainly weighing on the euro, given its sensitivity to world trade volumes. However, it is not the only headwind» says Shenfeld. «The ECB’s lack of an immediate direction change at Lagarde’s fi rst meeting did not help, nor has the recent data.Indeed, this week’s horrid industrial production print is just the latest indicator that has seen the EZ surprise index plummet at the same time the US series has actually improved. However, the differential is now close to recent extremes, suggesting that scope for further negative news is more limited and that the euro could appreciate if global risk sentiment turns. «90003

90002 90007 Francesco Pesole, ING 90008 90003

90002 «In the Eurozone, surveys will be particularly watched. The German ZEW will be the first post-coronavirus indicator and should therefore attract particular attention, despite the impact on the EUR having been quite negligible in the last instances» says Pesole.»Elsewhere, Eurozone PMIs will be released on Friday and here we expect a contraction that should mostly be reflected in the manufacturing gauge. This may erase — or at least decisively postpone — those expectations for a rebound in the Euro Area economy that had been building since the second half of last year. The result may be another leg lower in EUR / USD as market extend their expectations that the ECB will keep rates on hold for longer. Speaking of the ECB, the minutes of the 23 January meeting will be published on Thursday and attention will likely be on any detail around the strategy review, although any sizable impact on the EUR does not seem likely.All in all, we see the balance of risks still tilted to the downside for the euro next week. «90003

90002 90007 Christin Tuxen, Danske Bank 90008 90003

90002 «The dollar is likely to strengthen further: We now see EUR / USD at 1.07 in 12M, down from 1.15. The euro area remains a region of low growth, accompanied by weak inflation dynamics and our baseline is for a continued relative underperformance of European financial assets. In contrast, a host of tailwinds are supporting USD denominated assets and the dollar has been gaining ground since early January.Fundamental models suggest EUR / USD fair value is around 1.20, but we see no trigger in favour of such a correction. Rather, US assets ‘performance is much stronger relative to European peers and this continues to be reflected in downward pressure on EUR / USD. In turn, we have revised our EUR / USD profile materially, to 1.07 on 12M, down from 1.15. There are several events, which could change this view significantly, such as a US recession or expansive fiscal policy in Europe, but we think these are unlikely to occur as the world is today.»90003

90002 90007 Marc-André Fongern, MAF Global Forex 90008 90003

90002 «The euro has been taught a lesson since the ECB’s last meeting, while the market’s hopes for a sustained recovery of the euro area economy appear to be waning. This may be interpreted as a wake-up call for the European Central Bank to reconsider its monetary policy course. It might indeed turn out to be a tightrope act for the ECB to envisage another rate cut. Fiscal stimulus can be expected to be preferred over an even looser monetary policy.And precisely this would be the glimmer of hope for the euro. «90003

90002 90007 John Hardy, Saxo Bank Group 90008 90003

90002 «The euro is the currency showing the most directional momentum at the moment and has broken lower in nearly every euro pair we track» says Hardy. «The late US dollar rally, meanwhile, has cooled as some commodity and EM currencies have bounced here, while sterling has suddenly jolted into action over the last couple of sessions and is worth tracking for potential breakouts today.»90003

90002 90007 Martin Enlund, Nordea 90008 90003

90002 «Euro-area HICP flash inflation is due Friday 21 February» says Enlund. «The latest US CPI & EA HICP outcomes suggest some mild upside pressure on EUR / USD, but this effect is so far wildly outweighed by relative growth prospects where the US shines. A further uptick in Euro-area core inflation would nonetheless be somewhat positive for the EUR down the line. For now, we remain bearish on the EUR. » 90003

90002 90007 FX Analyst, Societe Generale Research 90008 90003

90002 «Its main defence is valuation: In real terms, the euro is at levels seen in early 2017 and 2000-2001,» says an analyst at Societe Generale Research.»That makes shorting EUR / USD hard, but it does not prevent us from thinking it can fall against the yen (now) and NOK. (Later),» 90003

90004 WEEKLY EUR / USD RECAP 90005

90002 The Euro-Dollar exchange rate slumped over the course of last week as the spread of Covid-19 continued to dominate markets. 90003

90002 The Dollar received a boost as data showed the US economy remained resilient despite the outbreak of the virus. 90003

90002 The single currency remained under pressure on Tuesday as risk appetite increased, as markets largely believed the spread of the virus had begun to slow.China reported that the number of new cases had declined. 90003

90002 However, the Euro was battered by fears that the spread of Covid-19 will cause Eurozone economic growth to slow. 90003

90002 The bloc was also hit by political uncertainty last week after the shock resignation of the favourite to replace the German Chancellor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. 90003

90002 On Wednesday, the pairing continued to suffer losses as recession fears continued to weigh on the bloc as coronavirus is likely going to hit Eurozone growth.90003

90002 Added to this, industrial production in the bloc suffered its worst monthly fall since January 2009. 90003

90002 The ‘Greenback’ received a boost after traders flocked to USD, seeking yields due to the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates. 90003

90002 According to portfolio manager of the Neuberger Berman Macro Opportunities FX Fund, Ugo Lancioni: 90003

90002 ‘The US economic data is still superior to other economies’ and the growth gap with the rest of the world remains substantial.’90003

90002 The pairing remained largely flat on Thursday after the European Commission left its 2020 and 2021 growth forecasts unchanged. While the EC expects moderate growth, the report focused on the emergence of a new headwind to the bloc, the spread of Covid-19. 90003

90002 Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell emphasised that he had confidence in the US economy despite coronavirus fears. 90003

90002 Added to this, underlying US consumer prices picked up in the first month of 2020 року, emphasising the economy is stable enough for the Fed to keep rates on hold.90003

90002 The Euro exchange rates remained muted on Friday after data revealed German GDP growth flat lined in the final quarter of 2019. However, this did emphasise that the chance of the bloc’s largest economy falling into recession has declined. 90003

90002 Meanwhile, looking at the Eurozone as a whole, GDP growth hit a seven-year low, growing by only 0.1% in Q4 2019. 90003

90002 The end of the week saw the single currency ease close to a three-year low. 90003

90100 Euro to Dollar Outlook: Will Euro Exchange Rates Suffer Further Losses? 90101

90002 Looking ahead to Tuesday, the Euro (EUR) is likely to suffer some losses against the US Dollar (USD) following ZEW’s German surveys.90003

90002 If February’s current situation and economic sentiment slide further than expected, the single currency will slump. 90003

90002 Meanwhile, Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are going to be in focus this week. 90003

90002 If the Fed continues to remain optimistic about the US economy, and the minutes reveal policymakers have a hawkish stance, the Dollar will make gains. 90003

90002 The pairing could continue to fall on Thursday, after the release of German consumer confidence data.If March’s statistics show that German consumers are more pessimistic than expected, the single currency will slide. 90003

90002 The European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are also scheduled to be released, which could weigh on the Euro. 90003

90002 However, the Dollar could suffer some losses following the release of February’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. If this slides further than expected, Dollar sentiment will slide. 90003

90002 At the end of the week, the pairing could slump further following the release of flash PMI data.90003

90002 If February’s German manufacturing PMI slumps further than expected, showing the manufacturing downturn is far from over, EUR will slump. 90003

90002 Meanwhile, upbeat US PMI surveys could boost the Dollar at the end of the week. If both the manufacturing and service sectors report an increase in growth, the Euro US Dollar (EUR / USD) exchange rate will slump. 90003

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